A hard winter might come for the United States because of COVID-19. Experts forecast that COVID-19 might claim 415,090 lives by January, with the worst-case scenario of 600,000 deaths by January 1.
Dire COVID-19 Forecasts
CNN reports that these new computer models came from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). This model predicts that the death toll would double in the next four months.
Data from Johns Hopkins University also report that around 6.4 million Americans have caught the virus as of Friday. Moreover, over 192,000 Americans have died.
“A Very Deadly December”
Explaining their model, Dr. Christopher Murray said that people would become less vigilant in the winter. They’d stop wearing masks, and they’d travel a lot because of the holidays. Overall, these factors together might cause “a very deadly December” for COVID-19. Dr. Murray is the director of the IHME.
However, US President Donald Trump has praised his country’s COVID-19 efforts. In a speech uploaded to the official White House Facebook, Trump said the US has “done really well” in controlling the virus.
President Trump: Rounding the corner
We're fast-tracking vaccines and therapeutics and treating this disease more effectively every day.
Posted by The White House on Thursday, September 10, 2020
When Will the US Return to Normal?
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that while he hopes that a vaccine would come out later this year, he said the US wouldn’t return to normal until late 2021. He noted that around 30 states had shown a downward trend in cases. However, he also said that the cases would rise again soon.
The US reports a daily average of 36,000 cases. With winter coming, more Americans are staying indoors, where the virus can spread quickly. People going home for the holidays are also likely to bring the virus with them.